What’s moving before it’s confirmed
A faster, noisier read on the same YC data everywhere else on this site: a formation whose YC tag or industry membership jumps over two consecutive batches, well before it clears the four-batch bar the rest of the site requires to call something “accelerating.” It’s a real but modest signal — backtested against the full YC batch history, not asserted. There’s also an even earlier, noisier tier — Whisper — kept on its own page since its open-signal list runs much longer than this one. For a categorically different read with no YC data underneath it at all, see Frontier.
Of signals that have had time to resolve, this share went on to become a confirmed accelerating formation.
What an equally-active formation does anyway, whether or not this signal fired — the comparison that matters.
How much better than that baseline this signal actually is. Modest, and stated plainly.
Historical firings since Winter 2018 with a known outcome (444 confirmed).
A signal below is unconfirmed — it has not cleared the site’s regular acceleration bar and may never. Read it as “worth watching,” not “worth trusting.” Roughly 13 in 100 won’t pan out, based on every resolved case so far.
Consumer Health Services
YC tag0 → 6 · new, over 2 batchesnot yet mappedData Visualization
YC tag0 → 6 · new, over 2 batchesnot yet mappedRecruiting and Talent
YC industry0 → 8 · new, over 2 batchesnot yet mappedHealthcare Services
YC industry0 → 12 · new, over 2 batchesnot yet mappedBanking and Exchange
YC industry0 → 6 · new, over 2 batchesnot yet mappedDrones
YC industry0 → 6 · new, over 2 batchesnot yet mappedAsset Management
YC industry0 → 10 · new, over 2 batchesSURFACEDSp25Databases
YC tag0 → 8 · new, over 2 batchesEnergy
YC industry2 → 16 · 8.0× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedAviation and Space
YC industry2 → 12 · 6.0× over 2 batchesSURFACEDW26Digital Health
YC tag2 → 10 · 5.0× over 2 batchesData Science
YC tag2 → 8 · 4.0× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedConsumer Electronics
YC industry2 → 8 · 4.0× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedDocuments
YC tag2 → 8 · 4.0× over 2 batchesHealth Tech
YC tag4 → 14 · 3.5× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedHealth & Wellness
YC tag2 → 6 · 3.0× over 2 batchesContent
YC industry2 → 6 · 3.0× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedDrones
YC tag2 → 6 · 3.0× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedSocial Media
YC tag2 → 6 · 3.0× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedRetail Tech
YC tag2 → 6 · 3.0× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedRetail
YC industry2 → 6 · 3.0× over 2 batchesCredit and Lending
YC industry2 → 6 · 3.0× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedProptech
YC tag2 → 6 · 3.0× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedPayments
YC industry4 → 10 · 2.5× over 2 batchesGaming
YC industry4 → 10 · 2.5× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedE-commerce
YC tag4 → 10 · 2.5× over 2 batchesSURFACEDW26Finance
YC tag6 → 14 · 2.3× over 2 batchesSURFACEDSp26Defense
YC industry8 → 16 · 2.0× over 2 batchesSURFACEDW26LegalTech
YC tag4 → 8 · 2.0× over 2 batchesConstruction
YC industry4 → 8 · 2.0× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedLegal
YC industry8 → 16 · 2.0× over 2 batchesSURFACEDSp26Infrastructure
YC industry42 → 84 · 2.0× over 2 batchesSURFACEDF25Big Data
YC tag4 → 8 · 2.0× over 2 batchesDevOps
YC tag4 → 8 · 2.0× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedOperations
YC industry14 → 26 · 1.9× over 2 batchesCompliance
YC tag8 → 14 · 1.8× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedInsurance
YC industry4 → 7 · 1.8× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedData Engineering
YC tag6 → 10 · 1.7× over 2 batchesSURFACEDW26Aerospace
YC tag6 → 10 · 1.7× over 2 batchesDrug Discovery and Delivery
YC industry6 → 10 · 1.7× over 2 batchesnot yet mappedWorkflow Automation
YC tag10 → 16 · 1.6× over 2 batchesSURFACEDW26Operations
YC tag8 → 12 · 1.5× over 2 batchesSURFACEDW26Finance and Accounting
YC industry12 → 18 · 1.5× over 2 batchesSURFACEDS25Biotech
YC tag8 → 12 · 1.5× over 2 batchesSURFACEDSp26Security
YC industry12 → 18 · 1.5× over 2 batchesWhat’s moving inside the broad categories
“Health tech” or “education” doesn’t say much on its own. YC doesn’t tag companies at this granularity, so this list comes from a local embedding model grouping company descriptions into specific clusters instead — things like Coding Agent or Voice Agent rather than “AI.” Unlike the list above, this one carries no precision claim — there are only ~60 of these clusters, far too few to backtest with any real confidence. It’s a plain observation of recent activity, not a validated signal: read it as a curated starting point for your own research.